Following the announcement yesterday by the government of a cap to the increase of regulated electricity tariffs at +15% for 2023, the objectives of the Group for end 2023[1] will be subject to a review once the regulatory terms for 2023 are defined. The French nuclear output estimate for 2023 is confirmed at 300-330TWh.
According to the information available to the Group, based on the estimated nuclear output in France for 2022 at the lower end of the 280-300TWh range and the 2022 forward prices on 13 September 2022, the estimated impact of the decline in nuclear output on EBITDA for 2022 compared to 2021 is reassessed at around -29 billion euros[2].
EDF expects a nuclear output in France for 2024 at 315-345TWh.
[1] See debt ratios targets in the PR of 18 May 2022: net financial debt / EBITDA around or slightly above 3x, adjusted economic debt / adjusted EBITDA (at constant S&P methodology) around 5x (on the basis of the scope and exchange rates at 1 January 2022. In a constant regulatory environment (ARENH ceiling at 100TWh), with a 2023 forward price assumption on 13 July 2022, and taking into account 2022 and 2023 French nuclear output estimates as given in the press release of 18 May 2022).
[2] See PR of 18 May 2022, and the H1 2022 results presentation which impact was estimated at €-24bn